Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
